Recent Paper Published in Nature Climate Change

Several PerCS-Net members contributed to a research article published in Nature Climate Change that predicts that coastal erosion on the pan-Arctic scale will exceed its historical range of variability and increase two to three times by the end of the 21st Century. Nielsen et al. (2022) developed a simplified semi-empirical model to produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic coastal erosion rate projections.

The model accounts for physical, thermal and mechanical drivers of erosion and is flexible enough to run at Earth-systemmodel scales. The outputs generated by this new study will help inform future impacts to arctic coastal communities, land loss and associated permafrost carbon flux estimates, and the role of Arctic coastal erosion on the changing Arctic Ocean, its role as a global carbon sink, and the permafrost–carbon feedback.

Fig. 1: Arctic coastal erosion projections

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Map of Arctic coastal type, permafrost distribution and sea-ice extent.

New Pan-Arctic Synthesis Paper Published in Nature Reviews

More than 10 PerCS-Net members collaborated on a recent review paper that was published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment in January 2022 highlighting the drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts. The article is one of a collection of papers on Permafrost in a warming world published in January that examine the physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem changes related to permafrost thaw and the associated impacts.

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