Several PerCS-Net members contributed to a research article published in Nature Climate Change that predicts that coastal erosion on the pan-Arctic scale will exceed its historical range of variability and increase two to three times by the end of the 21st Century. Nielsen et al. (2022) developed a simplified semi-empirical model to produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic coastal erosion rate projections.
The model accounts for physical, thermal and mechanical drivers of erosion and is flexible enough to run at Earth-systemmodel scales. The outputs generated by this new study will help inform future impacts to arctic coastal communities, land loss and associated permafrost carbon flux estimates, and the role of Arctic coastal erosion on the changing Arctic Ocean, its role as a global carbon sink, and the permafrost–carbon feedback.